CONAF study details wildfire prevention gains during Chile fire season

Wildfire prevention findings from Chile

New analysis published in January 2026 found that wildfire prevention and response measures in Chile avoided substantial damage during the severe 2023 fire season.

The study by Jorge Saavedra, Daniela Alegría, Gonzalo Tapia, Ana Prados and Mackenzie Allen used modelling and post-fire assessments conducted by the National Forestry Agency (CONAF) to examine wildfire impacts and avoided losses.

During the Santa Ana fire in the Biobío region in February 2023, about 108,944 hectares burned.

Modelling suggested the fire could have affected about 242,093 hectares.

That left an estimated 133,149 hectares spared.

The analysis also found that 17,321 homes were identified as potentially at risk.

Around 15,171 of those homes were ultimately spared from fire damage.

Across January and February 2023, CONAF estimated that prevention and response efforts helped prevent about USD 2 billion in economic losses.

That figure was about 20.8 times greater than the country’s USD 101 million budget for fire control and prevention activities.

The same analysis indicated that about 64,477 people and 46,634 structures avoided wildfire impacts during that period.

How the analysis measured avoided losses

CONAF stated that it has been analysing avoided wildfire losses since 2014 – 2015 to support wildfire risk management policy and assess prevention strategies.

One method uses fire behaviour simulation to estimate potential spread under given conditions.

Another method uses fire potential polygons to model areas that could have burned if suppression and mitigation efforts had not taken place.

These models are then compared with the actual burned area after a fire.

The difference between the modelled and observed burn area is used to estimate the land, property and communities protected by prevention and response actions.

That avoided burned area can also be combined with population data, property values and vegetation assessments to estimate economic impacts and the number of people and structures protected from damage.

Community measures and vegetation protection

The analysis also examined avoided losses linked to vegetation damage and community-level wildfire prevention work.

According to the figures presented, avoided vegetation-related economic losses in the affected regions during the 2023 fire season reached about USD 786 million.

The study said these figures reflect the value of forests, agricultural land and natural vegetation protected through prevention and response measures.

Chile has also expanded community-based wildfire prevention through CONAF’s Community Preparedness Program.

The programme works with residents in high-risk rural areas and wildland-urban interface zones to develop participatory wildfire prevention plans.

Activities include training workshops on household protection measures and the development of local emergency response procedures.

Vegetation management measures are also used in interface zones, with pruning and thinning used alongside fuel breaks to reduce fuel continuity and slow fire spread.

The authors said the Chilean case study shows how fire modelling, earth observation data and post-fire analysis can support wildfire mitigation and policy development.