Global warming and fire risk set to rise through 2029, says WMO

UK Met Office warns of elevated climate-related fire risks

The World Meteorological Organization has reported that temperatures from 2025 to 2029 are highly likely to exceed pre-industrial averages by more than 1.5°C, raising risks for wildfires and extreme weather.

According to the WMO’s Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, compiled by the UK Met Office, there is an 80% chance that at least one year will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record.

There is an 86% likelihood that one year will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, with a 70% chance that the five-year average will also cross this level.

Arctic warming and precipitation shifts predicted

The WMO said the Arctic is expected to warm more than three and a half times the global average over the 2025–2029 extended winter periods.

Predictions indicate average temperatures in the Arctic could rise by 2.4°C above the 1991–2020 baseline.

Precipitation forecasts for May to September show likely increases in northern Europe, Alaska, and the Sahel, while regions such as the Amazon may face drier-than-average conditions.

Wildfire exposure and heat-related impacts expected to grow

The WMO’s Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett said: “We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record.

“Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.”

Barrett added: “Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt.”

Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the UK Met Office and a professor at the University of Exeter, told AP News: “With the next five years forecast to be more than 1.5C warmer than preindustrial levels on average, this will put more people than ever at risk of severe heat waves, bringing more deaths and severe health impacts unless people can be better protected from the effects of heat.

“Also we can expect more severe wildfires as the hotter atmosphere dries out the landscape.”

Paris Agreement limits exceeded temporarily, but long-term targets hold

The WMO said that while temporary annual exceedances of 1.5°C are expected, the long-term average remains below that threshold.

The Paris Agreement’s targets refer to sustained warming over two decades rather than individual years.

According to the WMO, its current projections suggest a 20-year average warming of 1.44°C for the period 2015–2034.

This estimate is supported by multiple approaches, with a 90% confidence range between 1.22°C and 1.54°C.

New data to inform decisions at COP30

The WMO’s decadal forecast will contribute to climate action planning at COP30, the next UN climate change conference.

Countries are expected to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions, aimed at achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement.

The WMO said its findings are based on combined predictions from designated Global Producing Centres and other contributors.

The report emphasised the importance of sustained climate observation to support adaptation and policy decisions.

Global warming and fire risk set to rise through 2029, says WMO: Summary

The World Meteorological Organization has forecast higher global temperatures between 2025 and 2029.

There is an 80% chance that one year will surpass 2024 as the warmest recorded year.

There is an 86% chance that at least one year will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 average.

The five-year period has a 70% chance of averaging above 1.5°C.

Arctic warming is expected to exceed three and a half times the global rate.

Rainfall will vary, with northern Europe and Alaska likely to become wetter and the Amazon region drier.

The UK Met Office produced the forecast as the WMO Lead Centre for climate prediction.

The Paris Agreement defines 1.5°C as a long-term goal over 20 years, not individual years.

The WMO projects a 20-year average warming of 1.44°C for 2015–2034.

This data will support discussions at COP30 on national climate action plans.

Wildfires and heatwaves are expected to become more severe due to rising temperatures.