Rare wildfire threat emerges in New England as NOAA issues new forecast
Iain Hoey
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NOAA outlines updated forecast risks
Climate Impact Company has reported that NOAA has updated its wildland fire forecast for September and October 2025.
The agency indicated that large areas of California, all of Hawaii, and parts of northern New England are at risk of above average wildland fire potential.
According to NOAA, the forecast highlights widespread risk in Central and Southern California, Northern California, Northern Nevada, and Southwest Idaho.
The western portion of Washington has also been added to the risk area, with several major towns and cities now facing above normal conditions.
The update noted that drought conditions in northern New England have increased the likelihood of late season fire activity.
California and western states outlook
NOAA explained that September brings above average wildland fire risk across much of California, particularly in the north.
The risk extends to neighbouring states, including parts of Nevada and Idaho, while the western portion of Washington has also been added.
It reported that by October, risk will remain above normal in the San Francisco Bay Area and extend along the Southern California coast.
The Southern Appalachian Mountains are also expected to see an increase in risk during October.
NOAA stated that many of these areas include population centres, raising concern about fire spread into communities.
Hawaii included in the risk
According to NOAA, the entire state of Hawaii is at above average risk for wildland fires during both September and October.
The inclusion of Hawaii reflects dry conditions across the islands combined with ongoing seasonal weather influences.
It said that this is a rare situation, with the entire state simultaneously identified in the outlook.
The agency confirmed that the islands’ vulnerability is heightened during this period of the year.
Northern New England risk highlighted
NOAA reported that northern New England faces rare above average fire potential during September 2025.
It explained that a late season drought has accelerated in the region, driving this increased threat.
The area covered includes several forested parts of the Northeast which do not normally feature in these forecasts.
The agency noted that this unusual development reflects shifting seasonal conditions.
Atmospheric patterns driving forecast
Climate Impact Company indicated that NOAA linked the forecast to strong marine heat waves recorded in the West Pacific and Northeast Pacific.
It said that these marine anomalies were connected to strong upper-level high-pressure ridges across the northern hemisphere during summer 2025.
The agency explained that similar effects were also observed in the North Atlantic, with high pressure over Europe and a trough near Greenland.
According to NOAA, these conditions are forecast to shift in September, partly due to seasonality and a possible increase in tropical cyclone activity.
The forecast model suggested that high pressure ridges may persist over northern latitudes, while lower pressure systems strengthen in subtropical regions.
Relevance for fire and safety professionals
The updated NOAA forecast is relevant to fire and safety professionals because it identifies specific geographic areas at increased risk of wildland fire.
Fire services in California, Hawaii, and northern New England can use this information to plan resources and community safety efforts.
It also provides international context on how marine and atmospheric patterns influence fire risk, which may inform broader emergency preparedness strategies.
By highlighting drought conditions and shifting climate influences, the forecast offers data that can support local risk assessments and inter-agency planning.
NOAA updates September and October wildland fire forecast: Summary
NOAA has updated its wildland fire forecast for September and October 2025.
The agency reported above average fire risk across much of California.
It stated that Northern Nevada, Southwest Idaho, and western Washington also face increased risk.
According to NOAA, the entire state of Hawaii is included in the above average risk category.
It explained that northern New England faces rare above normal risk due to drought.
NOAA noted that October risk extends along the California coast and into the Southern Appalachians.
It linked the forecast to strong marine heat waves and high-pressure systems in the Pacific and Atlantic.
The agency added that changing conditions could also drive increased tropical cyclone activity.