Standardising fire risk measurement for local communities
Iain Hoey
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National Fire Risk Atlas to improve risk intelligence
A new Fire Risk Atlas is currently under development to provide the first standardised framework for measuring fire risk in local communities across the United States.
The Fire Safety Research Institute (FSRI) at UL Research Institutes (ULRI) is leading the effort alongside the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) U.S. Fire Administration and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Science and Technology Directorate.
This project focuses on research regarding single-structure fire risk and structure-to-structure fire spread alongside wildland-urban interface vulnerability.
Decision-makers require reliable data to identify emerging threats and guide investments toward effective mitigation.
Local fire departments reported approximately 1.244 million fires in 2024 which resulted in more than 2,200 deaths and $144 billion in property loss.
Wildfires in 2025 consumed over 5.1 million acres and destroyed more than 18,000 structures.
The Southern California fires in January 2025 were recorded as being among the most costly fire incidents.
National spending currently remains focused on suppression and response rather than long-term prevention.
Integrating risk intelligence into NERIS
The analytical tools and measurements produced by this research will be integrated into the National Emergency Response Information System (NERIS).
NERIS is a platform used by nearly 30,000 fire departments nationwide to support real-time decision-making and the adoption of the latest fire science.
Rebecca Harned, Principal Research Scientist at UL Research Institutes | Fire Safety Research Institute, said: “Despite the increase in destructive fire incidents, resulting in billions of dollars in economic loss annually, we continue to struggle to measure and predict fire risk.
“Yet, accurate and precise risk intelligence is a critical ingredient for empowering communities to take responsibility and invest in prevention and mitigation efforts that make a difference.
“At ULRI, we’ve taken on this challenge by integrating fire behavior science with data science and economics to provide the actionable intelligence on fire risk our public leaders urgently need.”
Advancing wildfire risk modeling science
ULRI has launched the Wildfire Risk Modeling Exercise in 2026 to foster collaboration between over 40 partner organisations.
This convergent experiment aims to identify the strengths of existing models and determine how to ensemble them for greater precision.
The Exercise Planning – Conduct Team includes representatives from CAL FIRE and University of California San Diego’s Wildfire Science – Technology Commons.
Other members include the Gordon – Betty Moore Foundation, FireWERX, Google.org, and the U.S. Department of War’s Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program.
Public safety agencies will use these validated insights to anticipate threats and prioritise prevention strategies.
