Why the vape effect matters: A plea to the tobacco industry from Fire Rover’s Ryan Fogelman

Vapes, weather and waste fire trends, by Ryan Fogelman

As we approach the end of the year, the waste and recycling industry is on track to reach a record number of publicly reported facility fire incidents in the US and Canada.

Much of the increase is driven by improperly discarded lithium ion batteries, including the rapid rise of disposable vapes that continue to enter waste streams in huge volumes.

In this month’s report, I share November’s fire data, explain the scale of the vape effect and outline the key points from my open letter to the tobacco industry urging collaboration on solutions the waste and recycling sector cannot deliver alone.

November 2025 fire data

We started 2025 on the wrong note by setting concerning records that marked the worst start to a year since I began tracking publicly reported waste and recycling facility fires in 2016.

July’s 56 reported incidents were the highest number ever recorded for that month and the highest single month total in the past decade.

August followed with 49 incidents and September reached 45.

In October there were 48 publicly reported incidents, outpacing the previous record year of 2022 by ten incidents at that stage in the calendar.

In November we had 27 fires, which was not a record but was only one incident below our highest November in 2020.

Scrap metal recycling yards fell behind waste, paper and plastic facilities with nine incidents, while waste, paper and plastic facilities recorded 13.

Organics management, rubber, construction and demolition and chemical or hazmat facilities each recorded one incident.

Year to date, scrap metal yard fires are still around 30 percent of all publicly reported incidents, which is in line with the long term pattern.

Based on current totals, I would be shocked if we did not end 2025 with the highest number of fire events ever recorded.

Even applying a simple December average would put the total at more than 440 incidents.

Unless December is unusually low, 2025 will be the worst year for publicly reported incidents since I began tracking in 2016.

What Fire Rover data shows

Fire Rover is seeing similar incident patterns.

Through September we responded to more than 3,000 confirmed fire events at client facilities and successfully responded to and suppressed 383 using our patented FM approved smart monitoring solution.

Like the publicly reported data, our incident volumes slowed entering the last two months of the year.

Once the year closes, I will release our full performance dashboard for 2022 to 2025.

At RCon I joined Alex Finkelstein of Teledyne FLIR for a discussion on how Fire Rover’s solution helps protect facilities from lithium ion battery hazards in critical infrastructure.

We took a deep dive into early detection and remote operated smart monitoring solutions and how our partnership led to the first FM approved remote operated fire protection system.

Although lithium ion batteries are a major contributor to increased incidents, I have also found that increased heat and dryness across the US and Canada remain significant factors for waste and recycling operations.

I will analyse weather correlations in my 2025 annual report, publishing in March 2026.

The vape effect

In my research I have identified what I call the vape effect.

The US and Canada have seen a 26 percent increase in the average number of facility fire events from 2022 to 2025 compared with the previous six years.

That figure does not include the 7 to 10 percent of facilities protected by Fire Rover, but if those were included I believe the increase would be closer to 40 percent.

The rapid shift from traditional cigarettes to vapes is a major contributor.

There were approximately 6 million new vape users from 2022 to 2024.

Many vapes are marketed as daily disposables and contain lithium ion batteries that must be handled as hazardous products.

We are lacking safe and convenient drop off locations, which means these devices often end up in waste streams where they can be crushed or punctured.

My estimate of 48 million vapes per week entering waste and recycling streams is likely conservative.

Biffa sorted 840,000 vapes in four months at only four locations, averaging 7,000 per day.

Extrapolated across an estimated 10,000 waste and recycling facilities in the US, the total would exceed 70 million vapes improperly discarded every day.

Regardless of whether the real number is 48 million per week or far higher, the scale is staggering.

Battery manufacturers are contributing through voluntary programmes and extended producer responsibility legislation, but the current level of funding and infrastructure is not enough.

Tobacco manufacturers need a seat at the table to address the device design issues that drive so many of these problems.

What I said in my open letter to the tobacco industry

In November I wrote an open letter to executives in the American tobacco industry addressing the growing number of facility fires linked to discarded vaping devices.

In the letter I explained that my data highlights a clear and concerning rise in fires linked to vapes and that this trend poses safety risks to workers and the public as well as financial and environmental harm.

I made it clear that I was not blaming the tobacco industry or suggesting wrongdoing.

Instead I asked for collaboration on reasonable and achievable solutions that can reduce needless losses and injuries.

I explained that the waste and recycling industry cannot solve this problem alone and that tobacco manufacturers can play an important role in several areas.

I outlined the need for public awareness campaigns to inform consumers about proper disposal.

I called for product design changes to allow easy removal of batteries so that they can be safely recycled instead of entering waste streams.

I highlighted the importance of convenient local drop off locations for used vapes.

I emphasised the value of joint research and data sharing to deepen understanding of the problem and support practical solutions.

I explained that lithium ion batteries in vapes are causing billions of devices to enter waste facilities and that major fires linked to these batteries result in an estimated 1.2 billion dollars in damages annually.

I stressed that without the involvement of tobacco manufacturers, the problem will continue to escalate.

I closed by expressing confidence that collaboration between our industries can advance safety and sustainability.

Partnerships and next steps

I am pleased to announce a new partnership between Fire Rover and the Solid Waste Association of North America.

The goal is to provide resources that help waste operators understand and mitigate risks by expanding access to safe and convenient disposal in more communities.

We are also launching the first Anonymous Incident Database for reporting these hazards.

When combined with videos shared by customers, this database will be valuable to insurers, fire professionals and facility operators working to mitigate risk.

As we head into 2026, education, operational best practices and technologies like Fire Rover are working to reduce the risks of major or catastrophic losses across critical waste and recycling infrastructure.

Buyers should be careful.

Early detection and automated solutions are not Fire Rover.

There is no substitute for trained human operators and a comprehensive fire protection strategy that works every hour of every day.

About the author

Ryan Fogelman, J.D., MBA, is a fire protection consultant with Fire Rover known for his expertise in bringing innovative safety solutions to market.

Since 2016 he has published reports on fires at waste and recycling facilities in the US and Canada.

He is a member of the NFPA 401 Hazardous Materials Committee and contributed to the NFPA 18A task force for wetting agents in 2025.

He has been recognised as one of the Top Fire Influencers by Fire and Safety Journal Americas.